A forward-looking Q&A with Jeff Bush, Principal of The Washington Update.  Jeff is widely regarded as the leader in nonpartisan political analysis within the financial industry. Q. Where do we stand on passing a FY2026 budget by September 30th, and what are the prospects of a government shutdown? Given that the budget appropriations require a majority in the House and 60 votes in the Senate (Republicans currently control only 53 seats), the legislative process appears to be lacking the necessary momentum to move forward smoothly. This isn't a new phenomenon; it has been common over the last few decades. However, the FY2026 debate [...]

The 2024 elections marked a decisive shift in the American political landscape. Republicans achieved a sweeping victory, reclaiming the White House, securing a Senate majority, and maintaining their hold in the House of Representatives. This outcome has set the stage for significant legislative and governmental functional changes in 2025, as the GOP aims to advance its policy agenda while managing the complexities of governing with a unified government. Republican Election Sweep The 2024 election results reflected widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo, with voters signaling a demand for a clear change in direction. The Republican Party capitalized on economic uncertainties, public concerns about [...]

From a tax philosophy perspective, the 2024 election sets the course of the country’s taxation for the next decade. 2025 is a big year for tax reform.   At the end of the year, barring any tax reform legislation, The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 will expire as if it never existed, except for the lower corporate rates of 21%.  The TCJA’s lower corporate rate is permanent until changed by a future Congress.  In this scenario, Washington does not agree on tax reform next year, and we would return to the 2017 tax code with the limits indexed for inflation. It [...]

Janet Yellen suggested that the US could default as soon as June 1st, 2023, if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by that date. The debt ceiling sets the limit on how much money the US Government may borrow. If Congress does not increase the debt ceiling, the US, unable to borrow, cannot pay interest on the national debt and risks going into default.